Before any of us had children, a group of friends from across the energy industry gathered at my house most Friday nights for tournament-style Texas Hold’em. We quickly got serious about poker. We read the classics—Caro, Sklansky, Gordon—and became fiercely competitive. We learned to recognize our situation at the table, calculate odds, evaluate options and adjust strategies as tournaments evolved. Before long, we were winning tournaments beyond my friendly home games.
There’s a saying in Hold’em: ‘If you can’t spot the donkey at the table, you’re the donkey.’ The donkey misreads situations, ignores odds, takes unnecessary risks and donks off chips to more astute players. They become the target and exit early—or rebuy and repeat. This phrase carries real lessons for energy business leaders.
Poker success boils down to three principles: understand your situation, evaluate real alternatives and execute with a plan that balances ambition and risk. These same principles drive success in energy markets.
Energy markets shift with events. Players and strategies change. Trends rise and fall. Economics fluctuate and capital moves. Problems and opportunities abound and every decision carries risk. The most successful executives are informed, calculated and proactive—they understand their situation, prioritize alternatives and operate with a determined yet flexible plan.
Without this discipline, even experienced leaders end up reacting to other players instead of driving outcomes. That’s how strong companies with good products quietly and repeatedly donk off resources.
In poker, success starts with understanding your situation—your chip stack, position, how you’re perceived at the table, cards you are dealt and the tendencies of players around you. We learned to read patterns, identify ideal situations and anticipate betting sequences.
Companies face dynamic situations too. Good leaders reassess constantly, recognize patterns, separate ideal from unfavorable situations and understand the real cost of staying in versus folding. Without this structured view, strategy becomes guesswork and decisions lack direction. That’s when companies commit resources that are misaligned with what they are trying to achieve.
Poker is a rolling evaluation of options—check, fold, call, raise, bluff—each with its own cost and risk. Discipline means knowing that just because you can act doesn’t mean you should.
Energy companies face countless problems and opportunities of varying magnitude; each with its own spectrum of possible actions and costs. The danger is treating every option as equal and necessary. Many companies chase opportunities with unfavorable odds. Likewise, not every problem deserves escalation. Some problems should be addressed directly. Others should be mitigated. Some should simply be endured while resources are focused elsewhere.
Like the calling station who plays every hand and sees every card, companies spread resources thin and confuse activity with progress. Strong leadership filters options based on fit, risk and return.
In poker, forethought separates amateurs from pros. We entered tournaments with a plan of when to apply pressure, when to protect our stack and how to adjust deliberately, not emotionally. We applied risk-based evaluation of options and tactics that kept our actions focused and in control.
That’s the difference between playing someone else’s game and playing to win.
In business, a strategic plan allows leaders to move proactively instead of reacting to the current hand they are dealt. It creates consistency in decisions and confidence across the organization. Without a plan, leaders drift and make risky bets. With a plan, they more successfully choose when, where and how to deploy resources—and advance to the final table.
Winning in business and poker isn’t about playing every hand or chasing every opportunity. It’s about focus—knowing where you stand, what matters most and how you’ll play.
The donkey plays anything. The professional plays with intent.
Companies win when they understand their situation, prioritize the right opportunities and execute with discipline. They build their stack deliberately, minimize unnecessary risk and shape the game instead of reacting to it.
In poker, as in business, the lesson is simple: don’t misread the table. Don’t chase bad odds. Don’t give your chips away.
Don’t be the donkey.